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Abotaleb, I S and El-adaway, I H (2017) Construction Bidding Markup Estimation Using a Multistage Decision Theory Approach. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

Chang, C and Ko, J (2017) New Approach to Estimating the Standard Deviations of Lognormal Cost Variables in the Monte Carlo Analysis of Construction Risks. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation; Risk allocation; Risk modeling; Public-private partnership (PPP)/build-operate-transfer (BOT); Sewerage system; Organizational issues;
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001207
  • Abstract:
    If soundly conducted, risk assessment could yield considerable savings for project investors. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) has been widely embraced by risk management guides as an instrumental tool for this purpose. This research aims to develop a new method to improve the rigor of MCS by establishing the link between parameter estimation and assessment of individual risk sources. The method is validated by virtue of its predictive power for the likelihood of a project being successful in securing investors. Eight Taiwanese sewerage build-operate-transfer projects are investigated. Compared with the discounted cash flow approach, this new method can provide a more accurate prediction using the expert’s assessment as input of financial impact and occurrence likelihood of individual risks. This finding furnishes solid empirical evidence for the value MCS might add to project appraisal.

Francis, A (2017) Simulating Uncertainties in Construction Projects with Chronographical Scheduling Logic. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

Franz, B, Leicht, R, Molenaar, K and Messner, J (2017) Impact of Team Integration and Group Cohesion on Project Delivery Performance. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

Gambatese, J A, Pestana, C and Lee, H W (2017) Alignment between Lean Principles and Practices and Worker Safety Behavior. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

Huang, C and Wong, C K (2017) Discretized Cell Modeling for Optimal Facility Layout Plans of Unequal and Irregular Facilities. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

Li, D and Lu, M (2017) Automated Generation of Work Breakdown Structure and Project Network Model for Earthworks Project Planning: A Flow Network-Based Optimization Approach. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

Moussavi Nadoushani, Z S, Hammad, A W A and Akbarnezhad, A (2017) Location Optimization of Tower Crane and Allocation of Material Supply Points in a Construction Site Considering Operating and Rental Costs. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

Patel, D A and Jha, K N (2017) Developing a Process to Evaluate Construction Project Safety Hazard Index Using the Possibility Approach in India. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

RazaviAlavi, S and AbouRizk, S (2017) Genetic Algorithm–Simulation Framework for Decision Making in Construction Site Layout Planning. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

Swei, O, Gregory, J and Kirchain, R (2017) Probabilistic Approach for Long-Run Price Projections: Case Study of Concrete and Asphalt. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

Umer, W, Li, H, Szeto, G P Y and Wong, A Y L (2017) Identification of Biomechanical Risk Factors for the Development of Lower-Back Disorders during Manual Rebar Tying. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).

Zhang, S, Bogus, S M, Lippitt, C D and Migliaccio, G C (2017) Estimating Location-Adjustment Factors for Conceptual Cost Estimating Based on Nighttime Light Satellite Imagery. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 143(01).